Was it a Value Bet or a Bluff? (NL25 Online Fast Poker)

This is the hand from the Nl25 online fast poker pool that was played a few weeks ago, and the result is surprising. In this hand, we can see how we can transition from playing GTO to exploitative and extract maximum value or get better hands to fold.


Hero’s hand: 1010
Villan’s hand: ?

Preflop plays out standardly: Villan opens from MP to 2.48bb, Hero goes for 7,48bb 3bet from BUT, and Villan calls. The pot is 15,31bb.

Villan’s Preflop Calling Range

We can see that Villan’s calling range is constructed mainly of suited Ax combos and week/middling pocket pairs. Also, Hero is holding 1010 and additionally blocking parts of that range, so the “read” on Villan’s range should be even better.


The flop comes 866, Villan checks, and Hero goes for bigger sizing of 10bb to get protection for his pocket tens and value from Villan’s Ax floats and weaker pocket pairs, Villan calls. The pot is 36.28bb.

Villan’s Flop Calling Range

After calling the bet, Villan’s range won’t consist of many Ax, Kx, and bottom part of the pocket pairs, so on any Ax, Kx, Qx, Villan will be very vulnerable to exploitation.


The turn comes K, and the card is terrible for the Villain and good for the Hero as the Hero’s range consists of many Kx combos, and the Villan has almost none. Villain checks and Hero goes for a 22,12bb bet, and Villan calls. The pot is 80,52bb.

Turn HJ vs BUT Range Comparison

We can see how narrow, weak on Kx, and full of pocket pairs Villan’s range is. Villan’s EV and Equity realization is on the low side, too. If we exclude 88 and 66, low-frequency calls preflop, the only pocket pair/hand Villan has that beats Hero’s TT is JJ.


The river comes 2, which doesn’t change anything; Villan checks, and Hero decides to go all-in and turn his hand into a bluff and fold out the “only” combo Villan can have to beat him. This is where GTO Wizard suggests Hero should check and go to showdown with his pocket tens, but in reality, it’s hard for Villan to call with JJ, TT, or 99 here to stay balanced.

Surprisingly, Villan calls and shows 55, and we can see that Hero was wrong, thinking that middling pocket pairs would fold and that going all-in with pocket tens was a bluff instead of a value bet. Hero wins 191.36bb pot.

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